Can You Ace The Eye Test?

The Eye Test

When an optometrist does a vision test, many times you are given a choice between two lenses as he flips between lenses to see which lens offers a better view for you. It is common for you to be asked questions like, “One or Two?”  As he flips between Lens Number 1 and Lens Number 2. If you picked Lens Number One, then his next question will be “Now, One or Three?” As he flips between the Lens Number One you picked and another lens he offers as an alternative he calls Lens Number Three.

As a speculator you have to do the same with the stocks on your list. You cannot have ten different actionable stocks. You are only interested in the best of the best. But how do you know which one is the best? As of today, you may have two different charts where one clearly looks far superior to the other. But between the two which one is more actionable? And more likely to make a sustained run?

What if you are shown the two charts below? Charts marked 1A and 2A for two separate stocks that are on your watchlist. If you are given a choice between these two, which one stock would you select as an actionable stock?

Chart 1A

And now look at the chart below, marked as Chart 2A.

Chart 2A

If you had to choose only one between 1A and 2A, as if you were at a “Stock Chart Optometrist” who asks you, “1A or 2A?” – what would you choose? Suppose you are a more experienced speculator and you pose a question to the stock chartist, “This is not enough information. Can you show me more of the chart?”

In response to the experienced speculator in you, you are presented this as a monthly line chart for 1A up until the uptrend was confirmed.

While you are viewing this chart and contemplating whether this extra chart helps you in decision-making in any way, you are then offered the chart below for 2A.

Now you are thoroughly confused. As if that is not enough, suppose I inform you that 1A = SGML (Sigma Lithium Corp) and 2A = AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics), how difficult or easy is your decision now? To pick the better stock between these two?

I can assure you that no amount of ratings via any subscription service, nor any analysis from any analyst or any further research from any source will help you in your decision. That is because, if this is a marathon run between SGML and AAOI, nobody on this planet can tell you who will win and by how much. You are in the first leg of the marathon and it does not matter who is ahead of whom at this juncture. It only matters who wins and by how much at the end of the run.

Can you assure me that both will complete the marathon as we sit here today, in early May 2026? What if one or both get injured or tripped up on the way to the finish line? So, you see your decision-making must be in real-time based on what you see and observe today. If you are looking to predict, you have lost before you even start. No matter how much you have been programmed to predict, our stupid human mind does not believe that predictions do not work. The only prediction that is true is that predictions will not work.

Why else do you see the entire machinery spend so much on talent, time, energy, marketing, and hype in making predictions? You are far better off interpreting the present and acting on what the present says instead of predicting.

And now we have prediction markets taking bets and it is open season for gamblers. Why do you think these business exist? Why do casinos exist? To make you money or to take your money? If you really want to practice your decision making try comparing your trades between SGML and AAOI (I have attached the charts for both as of close of last Friday and you will have to follow them on your own until the end) from now until the time that the race ends, which could be this week or three years from now, no way to tell.  That will require patience, to wait until the race ends, which is a long 26-mile run. And who has patience these days?