There was a time not so long ago when Novavax (NVAX) had a real shot at being the company that launched the first major effective vaccine against Covid-19. Somehow, somewhere, Novavax lost its footing and gave way to Moderna (MRNA) to go on and become the big winner in the race for Covid-19 vaccine. Novavax (NVAX) stock was sure acting like it was on its way for a big Covid-19 vaccine jackpot. Just look at the stock’s price and volume action in 2020.

In early 2020, during the first weeks of Covid-19 being talked about in the pharma and biotech sectors, the smart money bet seemed to be on Novavax (NVAX). From a low of $6.31 in February 2020 to a high of $170.29 in August, Novavax (NVAX) stock made a fast run up without very many reactions.

Novavax (NVAX) Stumbles A Bit

In August 2020, Novavax (NVAX) stock stumbled for the first time since its run-up began six months prior, in February 2020. If you had a trailing stop on a rising stock, it would have been triggered as shown by the red line and the yellow arrow in the chart below.

As it turned out, the stumble was more than a stumble. It was not really a stop or a breather on a long run-up. It was the beginning of Novavax’s long downtrend. But a wily stock like Novavax (NVAX), was not going to offer up such a simple path to the bears. After a few months of a basing pattern, Novavax notched a new higher high at $290.18. Clearly confirming the point that it is better to be late than early when dealing with stocks, even for the bears. See the chart below.

Novavax (NVAX), Failed Promises

Novavax (NVAX) was just biding its time and waiting for the bear market to begin in early 2021. And as if on cue, Novavax (NVAX) began its long descent in early 2021. With the usual dance moves and fake outs to trick the early bears, Novavax (NVAX) spent the entire 2021 calendar year being untradable.

Eventually, in 2022, Novavax (NVAX) began its true move downward. By the time 2024 had come around and the market seemed to be showing signs of ending the bear, Novavax (NVAX) had pegged a low $3.93 in January 2024. A long ride down all the way from its high of $290.18 to $3.93.

As many of the beaten down stocks started their recovery in 2023, Novavax was in no particular hurry. It took its time.

Is Novavax (NVAX) Trying Yet Again?

Having failed to live up to the promise and as a consequence being on the receiving end of a sound thrashing for three long years, is Novavax turning the corner? The price-volume action this past week surely was worth sitting up and noticing. Notwithstanding the reason being attributed to some tie-up with Sanofi, a pharma giant, the volume explosion that accompanied the price move was impressive. Yes, it has beaten down badly over the course of time. And the violent explosion this past week may turn out to be just another one week’s action in a long bottoming out process. Or it could be something else.

Looking at its latest one-year weekly chart, it looks like a new uptrend has begun from its January 2024 low of $3.93. The tripling of its price in the past two weeks on unusual volume also adds to the potential changed trend.

But stocks are experts at offering red herrings. What seems to be, may not be. What may not be obvious could become obvious, but at the wrong time. The messaging and the timing are used as a game to offer us all tidbits, morsels of clues, most of them misleading. It is the main reason that it is always better to be late than early in the stock market.

What will it take for Novavax (NVAX), to make a believer out of a speculator? There are a bunch of milestones that Novavax (NVAX) must meet. What will its reaction to the current run-up from $3.97 to $13.01 look like? Will there be any indications from its volume action moving forward?

What if there is no reaction and just a straight run-up similar to other stocks in the recent months? Would you be chasing a stock without a clue as to where to place a protective stop? A fear of missing out is a mind-game that the market plays with us humans. Missing out on a potential move is a temptation very few are capable of avoiding.

Let time pass. Watch Novavax (NVAX). Place it on your watchlist. If it wants to prove itself as a potential winner, there will be plenty of time and plenty of opportunities to act upon it.